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AstroTradeLabby Quantooo Lab

Learn · Tests

Test H5 · 2016–2023

Mercury retrograde

Claim: Volatile stocks fall.

How it was tested

Window: Every trading day on which Mercury is retrograde at noon IST. Two claims are tested: volatile stocks fall (returns) and get jumpier (volatility). Stocks: the Volatile third of liquid NSE stocks (highest one-year volatility), which astrology assigns to the fast planets; groups are re-formed each month using data up to two days earlier.

Measure: the group's average daily return on window days minus all other days, and for H5 both measures. Control: the same measure on 2,000 placebo calendars, the real sky shifted by random amounts, which keeps each window's length and rhythm. The claim passes only if the real sky beats at least 95% of them and still clears the bar after the Holm correction for all tests.

Result

H5r: Volatile stocks fall

Beat 30% of shifted calendars
Effect+6.2 basis points a day vs other days
p vs shifted calendars0.705
After Holm correction1.00
Days in window376
Newey-West t0.63

Verdict: the real sky beat 30% of 2,000 shifted calendars.

H5v: Volatile stocks get jumpier

Beat 21% of shifted calendars
Effect-0.14 in log-volatility vs other days
p vs shifted calendars0.789
After Holm correction1.00
Days in window376
Newey-West t-0.84

Verdict: the real sky beat 21% of 2,000 shifted calendars.

Development data 2016–2023; the 2024–26 data stays sealed until it is opened once. Effects are averages over the period, before any trading costs unless stated. How we test · all results

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